Tsunami earthquakes tides and swings

A tsunami is a term given by the Japanese to describe the physical effects of waves formed after an earthquake. They are also called tidal waves.
Not all earthquakes produce tsunami.
The earthquake is the cause and the tsunami is the effect.

In democratic elections, victory and failure, the increase and decrease of seats won, can be attributed to swings in voting patterns by the electorate.
Swings happen all the time. Multiple swings in different directions like tides, can cancel each other. In the same direction they amplify their impact.

The so called Chinese Tsunami in PRU13 is actually a combination of swings. Voters from certain ethnic backgrounds, age cohort, geographic location or other features voted in a similiar direction. The effect was most visible in say Johor and in Gelang Patah. However the effect differs across rural and urban seats and in different parts of the country.
A casual glance of the seats lost or reduction in majorities yesterday indicates that the swing against the ruling BN coalition was highly correlated with the % of Chinese voters. This may be a major cause but further mathematical analysis will show the statistical proof.

The Chinese Tsunami of PRU13 is actually a continuation of the swing from PRU12. In PRU12, there was a swing against Government. The swing was enough to change some state governments. That swing continued in Johor this year. Swings cause seat changes only when the swing exceeds the present majority. In PRU13 the swings were not sufficient to impact East Malaysia. Majorities there have reduced and continued swings in future elections could have significant effects.
Like a tsunami that reaches different places at different times and impacts different places depending upon the geographical conditions present, the election swings of PRU12 and PRU13 has impacted different states differently.

It is easy to blame others for our own failures. Describing a Chinese Tsunami simplifies real underlying issues.
Remember the tsunami is only the effect. The cause is the earthquake. In our election case the earthquake is rakyat dissatisfaction with the Government of the day. Pressures build up and energy is released causing tsunami and voting pattern swings.

#GE13 #PRU13 Estimate the results undi.info

undi.info have published a neat little tool for predicting the outcome of the 5 May 2013 Malaysian General Elections Parliament seats

Based upon your estimates of the % swing for each Group of voters the tool calculates the individual seats which will change hands. They give a guide of 0 to 15% swings.

What is a swing?

A swing represents the level of change between the two parties from one election to the other.

As an example.

Assume 1,000 valid votes in Seat XYZ in 2008.

The BN candidate got 600 votes and the PR candidate got 400 votes. 

The BN candidate has 60% and the PR candidate 40%.

Further assume there were 800 valid votes in 2004 in Seat XYZ.

The BN Candidate got 560 votes and the PR candidate got 240 votes.

The BN candidate has 70% and the PR candidate 30%.

The difference for the BN was an additional 40 votes and the difference for the PR was an additional 160 votes. The BN candidate lost 10% share and the PR candidate gained 10%. The swing is half the loss or the gain which is 5%. When one vote swings the effect is doubled as it is negative on one side and positive on one side.

Assume therefore that in the 2013 elections there are now 1,200 votes. What swings are required for the BN to retain the seat and for the PR to wrest the seat?

To win either candidate requires 601 votes, 50.08% of the 1,200 votes.

So to retain the seat the BN needs 41 more votes than the previous election and the PR needs 201 more votes.

The seat changing swing is (60% - 40%) / 2 = 10%.

So if more than 10% voters switch their votes from BN to PR then the PR candidate will win.

If less than 10% voters switch their votes from BN to PR or if PR votes swing to BN,  the BN candidate will win.

What has been the historical swings?

Swings have ranged from -6.8% to 8% in the General elections from 1964 to 2008.
Note that the swing % of votes will differ from the % seats.
This is due to the differences in the % majorities at each election.

What about 2013?

The undi.info tool requires you to estimate the swing for each group of voters. These groupings have historically swung different ways in past elections. 

If however you assume that all groups will vote uniformly and input the same % in each Group

you will see that the BN only needs a swing towards it of 0.5% to win back a 2/3 majority. The BN can afford a negative swing of 4.5% before it loses government.

This overlooks the fact that there are other factors that make the swings wildly inconsistent across groups, states and seats. 

Other random thoughts.

The votes cast is dependent, upon amongst others:

• seats being contested, (in the past some seats have been won uncontested on nomination day)
• voter turnout , (in some elections voters stay at home, voting with their feet rather than the ballot box)

For instance, in 1974, less people voted than in 1969. They came back in 1978 though! In 2004 there were only 285,044 additional voters than in 1999. In the past 5 elections the higher the additional turnout the the swing against the government was higher.