Tsunami earthquakes tides and swings

A tsunami is a term given by the Japanese to describe the physical effects of waves formed after an earthquake. They are also called tidal waves.
Not all earthquakes produce tsunami.
The earthquake is the cause and the tsunami is the effect.

In democratic elections, victory and failure, the increase and decrease of seats won, can be attributed to swings in voting patterns by the electorate.
Swings happen all the time. Multiple swings in different directions like tides, can cancel each other. In the same direction they amplify their impact.

The so called Chinese Tsunami in PRU13 is actually a combination of swings. Voters from certain ethnic backgrounds, age cohort, geographic location or other features voted in a similiar direction. The effect was most visible in say Johor and in Gelang Patah. However the effect differs across rural and urban seats and in different parts of the country.
A casual glance of the seats lost or reduction in majorities yesterday indicates that the swing against the ruling BN coalition was highly correlated with the % of Chinese voters. This may be a major cause but further mathematical analysis will show the statistical proof.

The Chinese Tsunami of PRU13 is actually a continuation of the swing from PRU12. In PRU12, there was a swing against Government. The swing was enough to change some state governments. That swing continued in Johor this year. Swings cause seat changes only when the swing exceeds the present majority. In PRU13 the swings were not sufficient to impact East Malaysia. Majorities there have reduced and continued swings in future elections could have significant effects.
Like a tsunami that reaches different places at different times and impacts different places depending upon the geographical conditions present, the election swings of PRU12 and PRU13 has impacted different states differently.

It is easy to blame others for our own failures. Describing a Chinese Tsunami simplifies real underlying issues.
Remember the tsunami is only the effect. The cause is the earthquake. In our election case the earthquake is rakyat dissatisfaction with the Government of the day. Pressures build up and energy is released causing tsunami and voting pattern swings.