#MH370, a possible scenario

Today, CNN is reporting that Chinese news services are claiming that a Chinese vessel has recorded a ping of 37.5 kHZ, the frequency emitted by a black box.

The location has been given as 25 S, 101 East.

If so, this is approximately 3000 to 3100 kms south of KUL.

This is almost due south of Kuala Lumpur.

Why is it there?

Here is my suggestion.

Something happen which caused the pilot to turn around and head back to KUL.

The cause of the turn back is due to some emergency. The cause of this emergency could be an accident  (eg fire) or suicidal pilot or hijack, the various scenarios proposed to date.

At some point, someone attempted to key in the coordinates for KUL (KLIA airport). These are 2.745N and 101.709E.

However due to the circumstances on board the Latitude coordinate was keyed in as 27.45 S instead. The emergency caused the person to make the error.

At some point, there is nobody controlling the aircraft and if flies on its own towards the erroneous waypoint.

The flight ends in the 25S 101E area now being searched.

I hope this ping turns out to be true.

Distance calculator from http://www.movable-type.co.uk/scripts/latlong.html

Tsunami earthquakes tides and swings

A tsunami is a term given by the Japanese to describe the physical effects of waves formed after an earthquake. They are also called tidal waves.
Not all earthquakes produce tsunami.
The earthquake is the cause and the tsunami is the effect.

In democratic elections, victory and failure, the increase and decrease of seats won, can be attributed to swings in voting patterns by the electorate.
Swings happen all the time. Multiple swings in different directions like tides, can cancel each other. In the same direction they amplify their impact.

The so called Chinese Tsunami in PRU13 is actually a combination of swings. Voters from certain ethnic backgrounds, age cohort, geographic location or other features voted in a similiar direction. The effect was most visible in say Johor and in Gelang Patah. However the effect differs across rural and urban seats and in different parts of the country.
A casual glance of the seats lost or reduction in majorities yesterday indicates that the swing against the ruling BN coalition was highly correlated with the % of Chinese voters. This may be a major cause but further mathematical analysis will show the statistical proof.

The Chinese Tsunami of PRU13 is actually a continuation of the swing from PRU12. In PRU12, there was a swing against Government. The swing was enough to change some state governments. That swing continued in Johor this year. Swings cause seat changes only when the swing exceeds the present majority. In PRU13 the swings were not sufficient to impact East Malaysia. Majorities there have reduced and continued swings in future elections could have significant effects.
Like a tsunami that reaches different places at different times and impacts different places depending upon the geographical conditions present, the election swings of PRU12 and PRU13 has impacted different states differently.

It is easy to blame others for our own failures. Describing a Chinese Tsunami simplifies real underlying issues.
Remember the tsunami is only the effect. The cause is the earthquake. In our election case the earthquake is rakyat dissatisfaction with the Government of the day. Pressures build up and energy is released causing tsunami and voting pattern swings.

#GE13 #PRU13 Estimate the results undi.info

undi.info have published a neat little tool for predicting the outcome of the 5 May 2013 Malaysian General Elections Parliament seats

Based upon your estimates of the % swing for each Group of voters the tool calculates the individual seats which will change hands. They give a guide of 0 to 15% swings.

What is a swing?

A swing represents the level of change between the two parties from one election to the other.

As an example.

Assume 1,000 valid votes in Seat XYZ in 2008.

The BN candidate got 600 votes and the PR candidate got 400 votes. 

The BN candidate has 60% and the PR candidate 40%.

Further assume there were 800 valid votes in 2004 in Seat XYZ.

The BN Candidate got 560 votes and the PR candidate got 240 votes.

The BN candidate has 70% and the PR candidate 30%.

The difference for the BN was an additional 40 votes and the difference for the PR was an additional 160 votes. The BN candidate lost 10% share and the PR candidate gained 10%. The swing is half the loss or the gain which is 5%. When one vote swings the effect is doubled as it is negative on one side and positive on one side.

Assume therefore that in the 2013 elections there are now 1,200 votes. What swings are required for the BN to retain the seat and for the PR to wrest the seat?

To win either candidate requires 601 votes, 50.08% of the 1,200 votes.

So to retain the seat the BN needs 41 more votes than the previous election and the PR needs 201 more votes.

The seat changing swing is (60% - 40%) / 2 = 10%.

So if more than 10% voters switch their votes from BN to PR then the PR candidate will win.

If less than 10% voters switch their votes from BN to PR or if PR votes swing to BN,  the BN candidate will win.

What has been the historical swings?

Swings have ranged from -6.8% to 8% in the General elections from 1964 to 2008.
Note that the swing % of votes will differ from the % seats.
This is due to the differences in the % majorities at each election.

What about 2013?

The undi.info tool requires you to estimate the swing for each group of voters. These groupings have historically swung different ways in past elections. 

If however you assume that all groups will vote uniformly and input the same % in each Group

you will see that the BN only needs a swing towards it of 0.5% to win back a 2/3 majority. The BN can afford a negative swing of 4.5% before it loses government.

This overlooks the fact that there are other factors that make the swings wildly inconsistent across groups, states and seats. 

Other random thoughts.

The votes cast is dependent, upon amongst others:

• seats being contested, (in the past some seats have been won uncontested on nomination day)
• voter turnout , (in some elections voters stay at home, voting with their feet rather than the ballot box)

For instance, in 1974, less people voted than in 1969. They came back in 1978 though! In 2004 there were only 285,044 additional voters than in 1999. In the past 5 elections the higher the additional turnout the the swing against the government was higher.

Why accountants don’t run startups sllc

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Bagaimana Urine Anda Hari Ini ?

During a visit to a factory in Jakarta, I visited their toilet. The company makes automobile steel parts for Japanese customers. They are one of the most successful vendors in Indonesia that have adopted quality control, Kanban, and other Japanese manufacturing methods. This extends to their toilets. Enjoy!

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Amazon Kindle in Malaysia

Yes, it does work here!

I was able to get Amazon to deliver to me a Kindle International unit to me while I was in USA during the launch on 19 Oct.

If you browse the Kindle website you will get this message when choosing Malaysia:

Malaysia
Unfortunately, we are currently unable to ship Kindles or offer Kindle content in Malaysia.

I shall not post a review of the Kindle device itself, there are many online. Suffice to say , it is a nice device and does what it says it does, and does it well. And it has a few surprises.

Amazon originally billed USD279 for the device plus free shipping, but then refunded USD20 after they lowered the prices after shipping the device. I received it in Miami on Fri 23 Oct.

The device powered up nicely but I was unable to see any books, magazines or periodicals for sale. I thought this was due to some congestion or all the new users logging in simultaneously. What happens is that Amazon offers stuff to you based upon your residency. I guess that the way these things are sold worldwide are on a territorial basis. So Amazon have different offerings and pricing for different locations around the world. Just as they will not deliver a kindle to Malaysia, if you are registered in Amazon as being in Malaysia then the store offers you zilch. So , you need to update your location on the Amazon kindle website as being in USA. Once i did that I was able to see the 367,940 books available, browse internet (yes an experiment)

So using the device worked in the USA.

During the flight to Kuala Lumpur, we transit in Taipei.

The kindle works on the GSM system. It finds a GSM network itself and you are online. So it was online in Taipei. It just does it itself, like a good phone will. In Taipei I got several messages which advised me to pay USD4.99 per week to get unlimited deliveries while travelling overseas. So if you want to be super mobile and get stuff anywhere, there is a cost for being outside the USA. However Kindle stores any items online and you plug into a computer through a USB device and download any item via the internet.

I have been getting daily copies of the Wall Street Journal and reading it on the kindle daily.

The power is 110-240V and also powers from the USB.

So, in summary. You can use the KIndle International in Malaysia. You need work out how to deliver it to a US address (australia works too) and change your location to USA to be delivered stuff online, or pay more for wireless delivery.

One caveat, the nook has been announced by Barnes and Noble. It will be launched in Nov 09. I sam copies of the brochure at a Barnes & Noble store in Los Angeles and it looks very nice, including a colour portion of the screen and touch screen as oppose to the Kindle QWERTY keys.

It looks good.